When it comes to this...
Israel's armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.
I don't believe for a moment that Israel will wait until March for a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency if the threat is going forward. They have their own intelligence. They're giving a final warning, and if Iran persists with this folly, they will back up their words with action very quickly. Of course, if Ahmadinejad stops his nonsense, all will be well. His choice. Hopefully, he'll make the right one. This is some very high-stakes poker.
Good luck to Israel. And to us.
Al-Jazeera's take on the situation, and its comments section, are very interesting.
UPDATE
Israel's strategic doctrine is here, and Global Security lays out the possibilities of an airstrike here.
And here's some cheek:
``America can take part in international bidding for the construction of Iran's nuclear power plant if they observe the basic standards and quality,'' Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said at a news conference.
UPDATE II
A denial in the Jerusalem Post:
In response to the Sunday Times article, Maj.Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry's foreign policy department, said in an interview to Israel Radio that while a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities could not be ruled out, Israel was a partner in international diplomatic efforts to address the threat from Teheran.
Gilad denied the Times allegations that Israel planned to attack Iran in March 2006.
So it's denied, but not ruled out. Some saber-rattling won't hurt when the guy on the other side of the "diplomatic efforts" doesn't seem terribly interested in them.
(Times-Online via FR.)
Posted by floridacracker at December 10, 2005 10:49 PMThe release of the info strikes me as bluffing.
Israel has some issues:
1. No aircraft have the range. Any action will require the overt cooperation of either a foreign govt on Iran's border (not gonna happen) or the United States providing refueling (possible, but not given).
2. The decentralized underground sites are spread out - do they have the intelligence? And are the class of bunkerbusters they got from the US (there is a deeper striking variety that we haven't overtly sold them) good enough to do the job?
I'm not saying Israel won't strike. And if they could, I have no doubt that they would. But it ain't looking too good.* Still, fingers crossed.
* A third option is ground strike teams, which would be a hella suicide mission. Still, I wouldn't put it totally past the Israelis.
But both the Thunder and Storm type of aircraft can get at parts of Iran.
They'll have to go through American airspace in Iraq in any case, so we'd be rendering a type of assistance even if we declined to be their flying gas station, if they needed one.
From what I'm reading, the bunkers appear quite shallow, but I'm not the bunker expert.
Ground teams: Sounds like an Alistair MacLean novel. Who knows what they've got set up in Iraqi Kurd territory?
Posted by: Donnah at December 11, 2005 06:15 AMLet's hope Israel can find everything that needs blowing up — assuming they actually go through with it instead of closing their eyes and hoping for the best like everyone else seems ready to do.
Posted by: Van Helsing at December 11, 2005 10:44 AMWell, if it were any other country I might agree. The reason I found this so interesting, though, is because Israel is not the sort of country that closes its eyes and hopes for the best. They don't seem to have any problem making decisions and taking action.
Posted by: Donnah at December 11, 2005 12:29 PMThey can get to parts of Iran, but can they get there, do a mission, and get back?
Check this out -
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=629
Actually, here is the pdf report:
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB629.pdf
(page 133 for comprehensive on Israel and preemption, 142 for specific aerial and covert capabilities, 145 begins the Iranian case with Israeli preemption, 148 aerial capability with Iran)
I wouldn't rule anything out, but truth be told, we may be the only country with the power to do anything. But with the tricky situation in Iraq, we really don't have the political capital. I thought Bush might prior to the election, but now I don't.
Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 11, 2005 02:47 PMMake sure you read 148 on.
Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 11, 2005 02:48 PMThat was interesting, thanks. Still, surgical strikes are do-able, just very problematic. It looks like their only other option is to try to delay things until there's a regime change.