When Max Talked, People Listened (Usually)

Max Mayfield, retiring director of the National Hurricane Center, is worried that elected officials won't use the sense God gave a goat and evacuate their cities when giant, killer hurricanes are bearing down on them. For Katrina he took the unusual step of calling officials to impress on them the urgency of the situation. Ray Nagin continued to dither:

The first forecast that placed New Orleans in the danger zone was issued at 4 p.m. New Orleans time on Friday, Aug. 26, not long after the storm left South Florida.

For the next 28 hours, official forecasts from the hurricane center pointed Katrina -- by now a major and intensifying hurricane -- directly at New Orleans. The weather office for that city issued increasingly ominous predictions of local effects.

New Orleans is a soup bowl, surrounded by water, protected only by aging levees. A massive storm surge and intense hurricane winds were certain. Many of the city's nearly 500,000 residents and one million people living elsewhere in that metropolitan area were in grave danger.

The city's readiness plan called for a mandatory evacuation at least 48 hours before landfall, but by 8 p.m. Saturday, with Katrina's center only 36 hours away, Nagin had not issued that order. Three hours earlier, he had said his lawyers were still researching the city's liability for lost business revenue if he took such action.

An evacuation order has dual value. Along with telling people who live in vulnerable areas to flee from potential harm, it communicates a sense of urgency -- even a sense of inevitability -- to everyone in the region.

And time was running out.

Acting upon the advice of Clay Stamp, a key behind-the-scenes figure who was working for the Federal Emergency Management Agency and has not been widely recognized for his role in this event, Mayfield took action that went beyond the usual call of duty.

Stamp, a former emergency manager in Ocean City, Md., was serving as a member of FEMA's Hurricane Liaison Team, assigned to the hurricane center. As Mayfield wrapped up a series of television interviews that night, Stamp caught the forecaster's eye.

He said, ``I have to talk to you.''

Last week, Stamp, now Maryland's deputy director of emergency medical services, said he was reacting to the ``gravity of Katrina.''

This is how he recalled the conversation:

``Max, I've been in public safety for 30 years and I know what happens when you come down to the wire and you're sitting with an elected official and you have to deliver what he needs to make a life-and-death decision.

``There comes a point when they have to talk to the most informed official. That time has come, and you need to talk to the governors of the states.

'And Max said, `Can you get them on the phone?' And we went from there.''

Mayfield, who confirmed the account and said that Stamp deserves much of the credit, made the calls from his office, its windows still shielded by metal hurricane shutters installed a few days earlier as Katrina approached South Florida.

He told the governors that Katrina was going to rival Hurricane Camille of 1969, one of the most powerful hurricanes on record. Camille produced a 25-foot storm surge and killed hundreds of people.

''This is going to be a big, big deal,'' Mayfield told Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco, according to her recollection.

Mayfield said he told Nagin: ``This is going to be a defining moment for a lot of people.''

Later, Nagin said that Mayfield's message 'scared the crap out of me. I immediately said, `My God, I have to call a mandatory evacuation.' ''

LENGTHY DELAY

Still, Nagin waited for 15 hours, finally ordering the evacuation at 11 a.m. Sunday, just five hours before the storm's outer wind and rain began arriving. Katrina's core made landfall only 19 hours after the evacuation order, but many people did heed the order and escaped in time.

''It's not like I had any secret information,'' Mayfield said. ``I'm briefing about the most recent forecast. That's what I always do, whether it's the president or you or anybody. It's just the sense of urgency that comes from these calls.''

He recalls only one other time that he reached out in that manner -- when Hurricane Lili approached Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane.

NOT THE USUAL WAY

Still, the system is not supposed to work that way. Governors, mayors and emergency managers -- aided by their advisors -- are supposed to draw proper conclusions from public forecasts issued by the hurricane center and by local weather offices.

Now, Mayfield worries that some elected officials may sit by their phones, not taking the situation as seriously as they should, waiting for a personal phone call. During hurricane conferences this past year, he repeatedly urged them not to do that.

He also worries that his staff's laser-beam Katrina forecasts could pose a problem. All forecasts carry a broad margin of error that must be understood and acknowledged. The thin black line on forecast tracks marks only the center of a wider area that could absorb a direct hit.

''I don't want anybody to think we're always going to be that close, because we're not always going to be that close,'' Mayfield said.

Thinking about the long delays in taking action in New Orleans, Mayfield grimaced. Every year, more Americans move to the coast.

''That happened with a good forecast,'' he said. ``Can you imagine if we forecast it 30 or 40 miles east of where it actually made landfall? New Orleans may not have done a thing.

``Oh my goodness, I don't even want to think about that.''

Nagin was re-elected, so hey, guess there's no hard feelings.

(Login/pswd=crockett@tubbs.com/miamivice)